Market recap

Markets received seemingly reassuring signals from the United States, but evident tension remained beneath the surface. Inflation slowed, Wall Street found new support, and expectations of a Federal Reserve hike diminished. At the same time, however, the bond market continued to demand a high premium to finance US debt, while Japan and the Middle East added new sources of volatility. In July, the US CPI increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 3.4% on an annual basis, a sl

Between Saturday, August 8th, and Tuesday, August 11th, financial markets rediscovered an old driver of volatility: geopolitics. The confrontation between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reopened the risk premium on energy, while the attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb reminded investors how vulnerable key shipping lanes remain. Meanwhile, gold and Treasuries reacted to the renewed tensions, stocks lost momentum, and Europe continued to find support in corporate

Between Wednesday, August 5th, and Friday, August 7th, financial markets experienced three sessions dominated by a fragile equilibrium. On the one hand, the possibility of a de-escalation between the United States and Iran temporarily reduced the geopolitical premium on energy; on the other, the Strait of Hormuz remained a lever in Tehran's hands. However, the US labor market definitively changed the market tone, reopening the debate on the Federal Reserve's next move on Frid

Between Saturday, August 1st, and Tuesday, August 4th, markets experienced a typical sequence: geopolitical risk remained elevated, but investors responded primarily to the possibility of the US-Iran crisis entering a negotiation phase. The result was a rapid shift of capital from oil to equities, metals, and interest rate-sensitive assets, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continued to demonstrate how far normalization still remained. The OPEC+ paradox: more quotas, but

Between July 29th and 31st, financial markets experienced a sequence of contrasting shocks. First, the Federal Reserve disappointed those seeking clear guidance on interest rates; then, tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices back above a significant psychological threshold; finally, the results of major technology companies transformed Wall Street into a market dominated by extreme and selective movements. More than a simple shift from fear to optimism, it was a consta

Between Saturday, July 25th, and Tuesday, July 28th, markets experienced a sudden risk rotation. The suspension of US attacks on Iran reduced the geopolitical premium on oil, but the energy relief was quickly overshadowed by the global sell-off in semiconductors. Attention thus shifted from the potential blockade of Gulf shipping routes to the economic sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. Oil prices fall, but Hormuz remains the center of the game The American d

Between Wednesday, July 22nd and Friday, July 24th, financial markets had to absorb a particularly uncomfortable combination: new military escalation in the Middle East, threats to key energy routes, rising bond yields, and a sharp revision of expectations for US technology. The result wasn't simply a generalized shift in risk aversion. Energy, defense, and parts of European equities showed relative resilience, while Wall Street, government bonds, and precious metals highligh

Between Saturday, July 18th, and Tuesday, July 21st, financial markets had to absorb a renewed increase in geopolitical risk, concentrated along the main Middle Eastern energy sea lanes. The reduction in transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat against Bab el-Mandeb transformed oil into the main indicator of risk appetite, impacting stocks, bonds, metals, and currencies. The double risk on oil routes The primary source of tension remained Hormuz, through whi

Between July 15 and 17, 2026, financial markets shifted rapidly. The period began with relief over weaker-than-expected US inflation and solid corporate earnings, but ended under the combined pressure of the tech correction and the escalation between the United States and Iran. Within a few sessions, attention shifted from the possibility of a more patient Federal Reserve to the risk that rising oil prices could reignite global inflation. US inflation: the first positive sign

From July 11th to 14th, financial markets were shaken by two opposing forces. The renewed escalation between the United States and Iran brought the Strait of Hormuz back into focus, boosting oil prices and inflation expectations. At the same time, the slowdown in US consumer prices and the solid results of major banks allowed stock indices to recover some of their losses. The picture, however, remains fragile: monetary relief stems from data that precedes the new energy shock

Between July 4th and 10th, financial markets experienced a two-speed week. On the one hand, the renewed escalation between the United States and Iran reignited the risk premium on oil and brought inflation back to the forefront of interest rate expectations. On the other, the strength of technology and semiconductor stocks allowed Wall Street to absorb much of the shock. The result was a mixed market: US equities remained resilient, Europe more fragile, government yields rose

A start to the week still dominated by the Gulf Financial markets began the week with a fragile balance: on the one hand, the possibility of a truce in the Strait of Hormuz supported the recovery of risky assets, while on the other, the clashes between the United States and Iran continued to keep tensions high on oil prices and inflation expectations. Following the mutual attacks of recent days, Washington and Tehran are moving toward new indirect talks in Doha, with Qatar on

The week changes center of gravity: less war, more growth The second half of the week shifted the markets' focus. Geopolitical risk remained: Iran reclaimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, a commercial ship was hit, and the United States responded by attacking Iranian missile installations, drone depots, and coastal radar. However, the market no longer priced in the worst-case scenario of a total energy shutdown. Instead, it began to look elsewhere: a strong dollar, high rea

Geopolitics: The Strait is no longer just a theoretical threat The start of the week presented markets with a delicate balance: less panic over oil, but more nervousness over stocks. Over the weekend, Iran announced a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire in Lebanon. The news could have caused an immediate shock for crude oil, as approximately 20% of the global oil and LNG flow passes through Hormuz. Yet the market reacted more co

A week caught between two opposing forces The second half of the week brought markets back into a very clear dynamic: on the one hand, geopolitical relief, on the other, the return of interest rate risk. The agreement between the United States and Iran has at least partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz and reduced the immediate pressure on oil; at the same time, however, the Fed and the Bank of England reminded investors that inflation is not yet a closed chapter. The resul

The market anticipates, geopolitics chases The start of the week on financial markets began with a very sharp move: investors began pricing in a reduction in geopolitical risk in the Middle East even before the normalization of trade flows was truly visible. The key news was the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran, also brokered by Pakistan, with a formal signing expected on June 19th in Switzerland. The key issue is not only diplomatic, but economic: the

From geopolitical fear to tactical relief The second half of the week clearly illustrated the current state of affairs for financial markets: not true calm, but a constant alternation between shock and relief. The Middle East remained the center of attention, with Iran striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan in response to American attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States subsequently launching new strikes against targets inside Iran. In a matter of hou

Oil relief is no longer enough The start of the week on financial markets told a less linear story than it might seem at first glance. Usually, when oil prices fall sharply, investors interpret the move as a relief: less pressure on energy costs, less imported inflation, more room for central banks. This time, however, the decline in crude oil wasn't enough to sustain risk appetite. Brent crude fell to $89.95 a barrel and WTI to $86.35 , a decline of around 5% . However, glob

Geopolitical risk is once again driving stock markets In the second half of the week, financial markets changed tack. After days dominated by the idea that the US economy could slow enough to soften the Fed's stance, Friday, June 5, 2026, delivered a different message: US jobs remain solid, yields are rising, the dollar is strengthening, and the most rate-sensitive assets—technology, gold, and bonds—are coming under pressure again. The geopolitical landscape did the rest. In

The week starts with two opposing forces The start of the week was dominated by a very clear tension in financial markets: on the one hand, optimism about artificial intelligence, on the other, geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Wall Street remained buoyant, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting eight consecutive record closes , while in Europe, the STOXX 600 rose 0.9% to 627.06 points , led by the technology sector, which rose 2.6% . STMicroelectronics, in particular, gaine