Market recap

Between late September and early October, financial markets exhibited two very different speeds. In the United States, softer macroeconomic data reduced fears of another immediate rate hike, allowing stocks to recover ground. In Europe, by contrast, accelerating inflation, pressure on energy prices, and tensions over French debt kept volatility high. In the background, oil prices above $100 and the rush to invest in artificial intelligence continued to push markets and expect

Between Saturday, September 26th, and Tuesday, September 29th, financial markets returned to action under pressure from an increasingly fragile equilibrium. The conflict between the United States and Iran brought oil back to the forefront, fueling inflation expectations and pushing bond yields higher again. The effect spread from energy to Treasuries, from equities to precious metals, while the technology sector continued to find a significant source of support in artificial

Growth too strong to please the markets Between Wednesday, September 23, and Friday, September 25, financial markets faced a now-familiar paradox: better-than-expected economic data isn't necessarily good news for risky assets. In the United States, the September flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 , the highest level since July 2021, signaling a very robust acceleration in private activity. This reading reinforced the idea that the US economy could continue to sustain persisten

Between the weekend and Tuesday, financial markets experienced a rapid rebalancing phase. After weeks dominated by the conflict between the United States and Iran and the risk of further energy supply disruptions, investors began to price in a possible diplomatic easing. The result was a sharp decline in oil prices, a partial decline in bond yields, and a return to risk appetite, especially in the technology sector. At the same time, however, the prospect of a still-restricti

Between Wednesday and Friday, markets experienced one of the most tense periods in recent weeks. The common thread was the return of inflation risk, fueled by oil prices still above $100 , the war in the Middle East, and a Federal Reserve that had once again raised interest rates. The result was a rapid repositioning between stocks, bonds, currencies, and precious metals, with often opposing movements within a few hours. The Fed changes the picture again The key news came fro

Between September 12 and 15, financial markets faced a particularly challenging combination: geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, a new energy shock, expectations of tighter monetary policy, and a sharp correction in the artificial intelligence (AI) technology sector. The result was a cross-sectional movement across nearly all major asset classes. Oil returned above $100, bond yields reached levels not seen in years, the dollar strengthened, and global equities lost gr

Between September 9th and 11th, global markets encountered an old enemy: the energy shock . The escalation between the United States and Iran transformed the Strait of Hormuz into the world economy's main flashpoint, while the Houthi advance on the Red Sea front added a second risk to trade routes. The shift from geopolitics to inflation, from energy prices to bond yields, and finally to equity valuations, was rapid. Oil is back to setting the pace The week changed tone when

Between September 5th and 8th, financial markets had to absorb an uncomfortable combination: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high energy prices, rising bond yields, and macroeconomic data that, rather than offering relief, reinforced the idea of continued restrictive central banks. The result was a market less willing to pay high multiples on equities and more sensitive to any signs of inflation. Oil and reserves: energy risk returns to the forefront The energy issu

Between Wednesday and Friday, financial markets experienced a period in which geopolitics, inflation, and monetary policy once again became strongly intertwined. The deterioration in relations between the United States and Iran brought oil back to the forefront of macroeconomic valuations, while US jobs data pushed bond yields higher and reignited debate over the Federal Reserve's next moves. Against this backdrop, Wall Street alternated between positive sessions and profit-t

From the weekend to the start of September, geopolitics, energy, and interest rates began to move together again. The renewed exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran brought the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz back to the forefront of valuations, while the surge in oil and gas prices reignited inflationary pressures just as the Federal Reserve and the ECB appeared poised for further monetary tightening. The result was a more nervous market, with bon

Markets received seemingly reassuring signals from the United States, but evident tension remained beneath the surface. Inflation slowed, Wall Street found new support, and expectations of a Federal Reserve hike diminished. At the same time, however, the bond market continued to demand a high premium to finance US debt, while Japan and the Middle East added new sources of volatility. In July, the US CPI increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 3.4% on an annual basis, a sl

Between Saturday, August 8th, and Tuesday, August 11th, financial markets rediscovered an old driver of volatility: geopolitics. The confrontation between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reopened the risk premium on energy, while the attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb reminded investors how vulnerable key shipping lanes remain. Meanwhile, gold and Treasuries reacted to the renewed tensions, stocks lost momentum, and Europe continued to find support in corporate

Between Wednesday, August 5th, and Friday, August 7th, financial markets experienced three sessions dominated by a fragile equilibrium. On the one hand, the possibility of a de-escalation between the United States and Iran temporarily reduced the geopolitical premium on energy; on the other, the Strait of Hormuz remained a lever in Tehran's hands. However, the US labor market definitively changed the market tone, reopening the debate on the Federal Reserve's next move on Frid

Between Saturday, August 1st, and Tuesday, August 4th, markets experienced a typical sequence: geopolitical risk remained elevated, but investors responded primarily to the possibility of the US-Iran crisis entering a negotiation phase. The result was a rapid shift of capital from oil to equities, metals, and interest rate-sensitive assets, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continued to demonstrate how far normalization still remained. The OPEC+ paradox: more quotas, but

Between July 29th and 31st, financial markets experienced a sequence of contrasting shocks. First, the Federal Reserve disappointed those seeking clear guidance on interest rates; then, tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices back above a significant psychological threshold; finally, the results of major technology companies transformed Wall Street into a market dominated by extreme and selective movements. More than a simple shift from fear to optimism, it was a consta

Between Saturday, July 25th, and Tuesday, July 28th, markets experienced a sudden risk rotation. The suspension of US attacks on Iran reduced the geopolitical premium on oil, but the energy relief was quickly overshadowed by the global sell-off in semiconductors. Attention thus shifted from the potential blockade of Gulf shipping routes to the economic sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. Oil prices fall, but Hormuz remains the center of the game The American d

Between Wednesday, July 22nd and Friday, July 24th, financial markets had to absorb a particularly uncomfortable combination: new military escalation in the Middle East, threats to key energy routes, rising bond yields, and a sharp revision of expectations for US technology. The result wasn't simply a generalized shift in risk aversion. Energy, defense, and parts of European equities showed relative resilience, while Wall Street, government bonds, and precious metals highligh

Between Saturday, July 18th, and Tuesday, July 21st, financial markets had to absorb a renewed increase in geopolitical risk, concentrated along the main Middle Eastern energy sea lanes. The reduction in transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat against Bab el-Mandeb transformed oil into the main indicator of risk appetite, impacting stocks, bonds, metals, and currencies. The double risk on oil routes The primary source of tension remained Hormuz, through whi

Between July 15 and 17, 2026, financial markets shifted rapidly. The period began with relief over weaker-than-expected US inflation and solid corporate earnings, but ended under the combined pressure of the tech correction and the escalation between the United States and Iran. Within a few sessions, attention shifted from the possibility of a more patient Federal Reserve to the risk that rising oil prices could reignite global inflation. US inflation: the first positive sign

From July 11th to 14th, financial markets were shaken by two opposing forces. The renewed escalation between the United States and Iran brought the Strait of Hormuz back into focus, boosting oil prices and inflation expectations. At the same time, the slowdown in US consumer prices and the solid results of major banks allowed stock indices to recover some of their losses. The picture, however, remains fragile: monetary relief stems from data that precedes the new energy shock