Markets are suspended between Hormuz and records: optimism is spreading, but geopolitics remains in control.

The weekend that changed the tone of the markets

The start of the week for financial markets was dominated by a single variable: the Strait of Hormuz. After weeks in which oil, interest rates, and stock markets lived to the rhythm of the Middle East war, between Saturday and Monday, investors began to price in a more favorable scenario: a possible agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the most sensitive sea passage for global energy. Donald Trump hinted that an agreement was close, including the reopening of Hormuz, while Tehran denied it: no definitive agreement, only progress and unresolved issues. Reuters reported that Washington was talking about details that could be announced "soon," but that Iran had not agreed to hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The market reacted as it always does when energy risk recedes: it bought stocks and sold oil. Crude oil fell nearly 7% in the session following the weekend, while gold rose more than 1% , supported by the weaker dollar and falling yields. Spot gold reached around $4,561 an ounce , with futures at $4,563 , while Brent crude was squeezed by expectations of a reopening of shipping routes.

Stock markets rally as Tokyo, Europe, and Milan look beyond the war.

The most notable rebound was seen on the stock markets. In Asia, the Nikkei continued to hover near its highs, supported by improving global sentiment and hopes that the drop in oil prices will ease inflationary pressures. The Japanese JP225 index reached the 65,000-point mark, after a month of gains of nearly 9% , confirming Tokyo's continued strength in 2026.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 hit a two-month high on optimism about US-Iran negotiations, before retreating 0.6% to 628.01 points on Tuesday as new US attacks in Iran dampened hopes for an immediate solution. The move reflects the market's recent momentum: ready to buy any diplomatic signal, but still fragile in the face of any military news.

Italy experienced a symbolic transition. The FTSE MIB surpassed the 50,000-point mark, reaching levels not seen in nearly 26 years , before closing on Tuesday at 49,899 points . This is an important signal: Piazza Affari benefits from the strength of banks, industrials, and energy, but remains exposed to both the price of oil and the ECB's path.

Oil, gold, and the dollar: the market still doesn't believe in a definitive peace.

Commodity volatility remained extreme. After Monday's plunge, oil recovered some of its losses on Tuesday, when the United States declared it had struck Iranian targets in "self-defense," including missile sites and vessels. Brent closed at around $99.58 a barrel, up 3.58% , while WTI settled at $93.89 , still below the previous Friday's close.

Gold also reversed direction in a matter of hours. It had risen more than 1% on Monday, but on Tuesday it lost more than 1% , falling to $4,511 an ounce, as the return of oil risk rekindled expectations of higher interest rates. The dollar, initially weakened by hopes of a deal, then recovered ground against the euro and yen as renewed tensions revived demand for the safe-haven currency.

ECB toughens: if oil remains high, the cuts will disappear

The most delicate issue for Europe is monetary. If Hormuz truly reopens, oil prices could fall and inflation could ease. But if the war remains suspended, with Brent crude near or above $100 , the ECB may be forced to maintain a more aggressive stance. Philip Lane indicated that the new ECB forecasts will need to incorporate the worsening macroeconomic scenario related to the Middle East, while Isabel Schnabel argued that a June hike would remain on the table even if tensions eased.

The issue is simple: a geopolitical agreement may boost stock markets in the short term, but it doesn't automatically erase the accumulated effects on energy, transportation, and inflation expectations. This is why bond markets remain cautious: peace isn't yet concrete enough for central banks to declare the price emergency over.

Ferrari, Starlink, and Lebanon: Geopolitics Enters Individual Stocks

Among individual cases, Ferrari experienced a difficult session following the launch of its first electric car, the Luce. The stock fell as much as 8.4% in Milan, penalized by a cold reaction from investors and doubts about the positioning of a €550,000 , five-seater, four-door model, far removed from the classic image of the Prancing Horse.

Meanwhile, the war has also revealed its technological side. Reuters reported tensions between the Pentagon and SpaceX over the use of Starlink in American drones, with the cost per terminal rising from $ 5,000 to $25,000 . This is a financial, but also a strategic, detail: private satellite infrastructure is becoming an integral part of modern warfare.

The regional situation remains volatile. Israel has intensified its raids against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with over 120 attacks and at least 31 deaths , while Iran has threatened renewed retaliation in the event of further aggression.

Conclusion: rally yes, but still conditioned by a signature that isn't there

This start to the week shows a market willing to believe in de-escalation, but not yet priced in a complete normalization. Stock markets have bought hope, oil has sold risk, gold has oscillated between safe havens and interest rates, while the ECB remains trapped between weak growth and energy inflation. The key remains Hormuz: until the Strait is truly reopened and the US-Iran agreement is signed, every stock market record will continue to rest on a delicate balance.