Markets between Persian Gulf, US jobs and AI: the week changes tone

Geopolitical risk is once again driving stock markets

In the second half of the week, financial markets changed tack. After days dominated by the idea that the US economy could slow enough to soften the Fed's stance, Friday, June 5, 2026, delivered a different message: US jobs remain solid, yields are rising, the dollar is strengthening, and the most rate-sensitive assets—technology, gold, and bonds—are coming under pressure again.

The geopolitical landscape did the rest. In the Persian Gulf, the United States struck a Botswana-flagged oil tanker headed for Iran, while Tehran launched missiles and drones at targets in Kuwait and Bahrain; the attack in Kuwait caused at least one death , while missiles headed for Bahrain were reportedly intercepted. In parallel, Iran declared it had fired missiles and warning drones near US naval vessels in the Gulf of Oman. The issue for the markets is not just military: the Strait of Hormuz remains an energy chokepoint, through which approximately a fifth of global oil and LNG flows passed before the war.

Trump, Netanyahu, and a truce that doesn't convince Hezbollah

On the diplomatic front, Donald Trump harshly rebuked Benjamin Netanyahu for the risk of new Israeli operations in Lebanon, attempting to avoid derailing broader negotiations with Iran. The White House attempted to present a truce between Israel and Lebanon as a step toward de-escalation, but Hezbollah rejected the agreement, calling it unacceptable because it envisaged its withdrawal from southern Lebanon without sufficient guarantees regarding an Israeli withdrawal.

In Washington, too, the war has become a political issue. The U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution limiting Trump's powers over Iran by a vote of 215 to 208 ; four Republicans joined the Democrats. However, the vote remains largely symbolic: it requires passage in the Senate and, in the event of a presidential veto, a two-thirds majority to override it.

Tariffs are back on the table

As if geopolitical risk weren't enough, Trump has reopened the trade front by proposing new tariffs against approximately 60 partners accused of failing to adequately combat forced labor. The plan calls for additional tariffs of 10% for the EU, the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan, and 12.5% for economies such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil, and Switzerland. The measure would not take effect immediately, but it brings back to the table a variable familiar to markets: uncertainty about global value chains.

Europe is weak, the USA is still too strong

On the macroeconomic front, Europe disappointed. Eurostat revised euro area GDP for the first quarter to -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while the EU average fell by -0.1% . This is significant because it comes at a time when European inflation remains high: in May, it was estimated at 3.2% , still above the ECB target. The combination of weak growth and persistently high prices is the worst possible mix for European bond investors.

In the United States, however, the signal was the opposite. Initial jobless claims rose to 225,000 , from 212,000 , above expectations, but the May jobs report dispelled the idea of a truly fragile labor market: nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 , the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% , and labor force participation remained at 61.8% . The message is clear: the US economy is slowing at times, but not enough to make a rate cut easy.

Technology loses its monopoly on euphoria

The most symbolic blow came from Broadcom. The stock, after a huge run in artificial intelligence, fell more than 14% on Thursday and lost another 7% in the US trading session on Friday. The company reported quarterly revenue of $22.19 billion , but below expectations, and forecast AI sales for the current quarter of $16 billion , lower than the market had hoped. Reuters estimated a possible market cap loss of more than $315 billion .

The point isn't that AI is "finished." The point is that the market is starting to distinguish between real growth and perfect expectations. When a stock has already risen more than 8x since ChatGPT's arrival and the market demands ever-higher revisions, even strong numbers may not be enough.

Stocks, dollar, gold and bonds: the price reaction

The reaction of assets was consistent with the new scenario. At mid-session on Friday, the S&P 500 ETF was down around 2.5% , the Nasdaq 100 around 4.4% , the Euro Stoxx 50 around 2.4% , the Japan ETF 3.5% , and the China ETF 2.7% . The dollar, however, rose: the UUP ETF gained around 0.7% . Gold and bonds, two assets favored when yields fall, suffered: GLD lost around 3.5% , while TLT, a proxy for long Treasuries, was down around 0.5% . Oil, despite geopolitical risk, also fell around 2.8% , a sign that the market is also considering demand risk and news volatility.

The second half of the week thus leaves a clear message: markets are no longer buying everything indiscriminately. Strong American jobs are supporting the dollar and yields, Europe's growth is showing signs of fragility, the Persian Gulf remains a source of shocks, and artificial intelligence alone is no longer sufficient to justify any valuation. At this stage, more than enthusiasm, selection once again matters.