Hormuz reopens halfway: oil prices fall as AI weighs on markets

Geopolitics: The Strait is no longer just a theoretical threat

The start of the week presented markets with a delicate balance: less panic over oil, but more nervousness over stocks. Over the weekend, Iran announced a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire in Lebanon. The news could have caused an immediate shock for crude oil, as approximately 20% of the global oil and LNG flow passes through Hormuz. Yet the market reacted more coolly: several ships continued to transit, albeit with still lower-than-normal volumes and high operational risks.

The point is that the declared closure did not turn into a total blockade. Some previously idled supertankers left the Gulf, while several ships linked to Qatari LNG resumed passage. This distinction made a difference in prices: Brent fell towards $77 a barrel, WTI towards $73, after a decline of more than 3% in the previous session. The message is clear: as long as the routes remain partially viable, the geopolitical premium on oil will diminish. But it doesn't take much to reignite it.

Switzerland: Diplomatic tensions, then a glimmer of hope

In parallel, talks between the United States and Iran began in Switzerland. The negotiations were not straightforward: the Iranian delegation walked out in protest against Trump, but the discussions ended in a more constructive atmosphere. The United States is talking about a 60-day roadmap to reach a more stable agreement and a temporary suspension of some sanctions until August 21.

The nuclear issue remains unresolved. Washington maintains that Iran has accepted extensive IAEA inspections, while Tehran has downplayed this interpretation, denying any new definitive commitments. This is an important nuance for the markets: if the inspections were confirmed, the likelihood of an agreement would increase; if, however, they remained merely an American declaration, the risk of a new rupture would remain high.

Asia and technology: the correction starts with the most crowded stocks

The weakest front, however, was equities. In Asia, the sell-off was sharp: the Korean Kospi lost about 10%, led by semiconductors, while the Nikkei fell around 1.2% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index about 1.5%. Pressure was concentrated on technology stocks, precisely those that had benefited most from the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence in recent months.

In the United States, the Nasdaq lost about 1.6%, the S&P 500 about 1%, while the Dow Jones remained almost unchanged. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.6%, Nvidia lost 3.7%, Micron 11%, and SanDisk over 12%. SpaceX, after burning through over $600 billion in market capitalization in previous sessions, attempted a recovery, but remains a symbol of the volatility of the new AI cycle.

Europe and the UK: Chip sales, political uncertainty in London

In Europe, the dynamic was similar. The STOXX 600 lost about 0.7%, returning to its lowest level since June 12, while the European technology sector fell 3.7%, its worst performance since February. Among chipmakers, Infineon lost 6.3% and STMicroelectronics 8.5%. The market isn't selling technology because AI has disappeared; it's selling high valuations, concentration, and very heavy investment in an environment of still-tight interest rates.

In the United Kingdom, political factors were added: Keir Starmer announced his resignation after less than two years as prime minister. The pound fell 0.2% against the dollar, to around 1.3222, while the UK composite PMI fell to 49.4, below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The market did not react in a disorderly manner, but political uncertainty is compounding an already weak economy.

Goldman Sachs: Not a dot-com, but an extreme concentration

The correction has reopened the comparison with the dot-com bubble. Goldman Sachs maintains a more cautious reading: the main analogy with 2000 concerns the high level of investment, not necessarily the quality of the leading companies. Today, many AI companies have real revenues, high margins, and more solid balance sheets than the internet companies of the time. The problem, if anything, is concentration: a few stocks account for a huge portion of index performance.

Goldman also estimates robust earnings growth for the S&P 500, targeting 8,000 points by the end of 2026. But the critical issue remains the return on investment: global spending on AI and data centers is estimated at around $765 billion this year and could rise to $1.6 trillion by 2031. These are enormous numbers, which the market will only tolerate if concrete results arrive in the coming quarters.

Interest Rates, Currencies, and Commodities: Risk Changes Shape

The decline in oil prices hasn't helped stock markets much, as the real problem has shifted to interest rates. Markets are pricing in a more aggressive Fed, with the possibility of two 25-basis-point hikes by the end of 2026. Treasury yields have risen, the dollar has hit its highest level in about a year, and the euro has fallen toward 1.14. Gold has also corrected, penalized by a strong dollar and higher real rates, while copper has suffered from fears of a global slowdown.

The final picture is therefore less simple than it seems. Hormuz remains a risk, but it is no longer the only one. Oil prices are falling because ships are passing through and talks are progressing. Stocks are falling because the market is starting to demand concrete evidence from AI. At this stage, confidence depends not only on peace in the Middle East, but on the ability of earnings to justify already very demanding valuations.