Record-breaking markets, oil above $100, and diplomacy suspended over the Strait of Hormuz.

The week ends with a market that buys technology and hope

The second half of the week revealed a financial market still willing to look beyond the geopolitical noise, but not to ignore it. On the one hand, Wall Street updated its all-time highs, Asia continued to rally thanks to semiconductors, and the FTSE MIB hit new records. On the other, the Strait of Hormuz remained the nerve center of global risk: the United States and Iran continued to trade blows, while diplomacy attempted to forge a short-term agreement. The result was a fragile equilibrium: stocks rose, oil remained above $100 , a weaker dollar, and a strengthening yen.

Asia: The new geography of rallying passes through chips

The strongest signal came from Asia. South Korea experienced a near-historic moment: the KOSPI surpassed 7,000 points for the first time, buoyed by the semiconductor rally and Samsung, which rose 12-13% in key trading sessions and is now above the symbolic $1 trillion market capitalization threshold. Reuters also reported new highs for the MSCI global, emerging market, and Asia ex-Japan indices, confirming that the AI theme is no longer just an American one, but increasingly an Asian one. Regarding China, we need to be a little more precise: domestic markets continued to recover, with the CSI 300 at its highest since the start of 2022 and its fifth consecutive positive week, but not all major Chinese indices are formally at all-time highs. The market message, however, is clear: technology, AI, and semiconductors are reshaping global equity leadership.

Wall Street: Record-high Nasdaq, solid jobs, and a more patient Fed

In the United States, the narrative was even clearer. On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 points , up 0.84% , while the Nasdaq gained 1.71% to 26,247.08 points . The Dow Jones remained almost unchanged at 49,609.16 points , but the real market was in chips: Micron and Sandisk rose more than 15% , while the Philadelphia semiconductor index accumulated a gain of around 55% in the quarter. The labor market also supported the movement: in April, the United States created 115,000 jobs , against expectations of around 55,000 , with unemployment stuck at 4.3% . This data reinforces the idea of a resilient economy, but makes an aggressive Fed rate cut less likely.

Europe: Milan at its highest, Germany still fragile

In Europe, the picture was more selective. The FTSE MIB surpassed the 49,100 point mark, updating its all-time high and confirming the relative strength of the Milan Stock Exchange, supported by banks, industrials, and the rotation toward markets with even less extreme valuations than the United States. The MSCI World also reached a record high of 1,108.94 points , boosted by global earnings: among the 1,060 companies in the index, earnings growth was 22% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by around 6.3 percentage points . The weakest note came from Germany: industrial production in March fell 0.7% month-on-month, while analysts had expected a 0.5% increase. It's a small figure, but weighty in meaning: German industry remains the weak link in the European recovery.

Hormuz: Diplomacy holds, but oil price risk remains

The market bought the possibility of a deal between the United States and Iran, but was unable to price in a full normalization. Tehran said it wanted a "fair and comprehensive" agreement, while Washington is still awaiting a formal response to the proposal. According to available reports, the plan would include a temporary truce, with a negotiating window of 30 to 60 days , useful for stopping the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and postponing the most difficult issues regarding nuclear issues and sanctions. Trump temporarily suspended "Project Freedom," the operation to force the reopening of the canal, precisely so as not to interrupt diplomatic progress. But the exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces in the Gulf has reminded us that the ceasefire remains reversible.

Oil, yen and rates: the market is not euphoric, it is protected

Oil reflected this tension best. Brent closed at $101.29 a barrel, up 1.2% on Friday but down 6.4% for the week; WTI stopped at $95.42 , also under pressure from previous highs. The dollar weakened for the second consecutive week, while the yen continued to rise, supported both by the search for protection and by suspicions of Japanese intervention in the currency market. On the bond front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.356% , a sign that investors continue to buy hedges even as stock indices hit new records.

Conclusion: a record, yes, but with a still high risk premium

The week thus ends with a powerful picture: the Nasdaq, S&P 500, MSCI World, South Korea, and the FTSE MIB are at or near their peaks, while oil, the yen, and Treasuries are a reminder that geopolitical risk has not disappeared. The US-Iran agreement appears closer, but has not yet been signed; Israel and Lebanon will hold new talks in Washington on May 14-15 , another piece of a still-incomplete regional stabilization. Markets are betting on three forces: AI, corporate profits, and diplomacy. As long as these three pillars hold together, the rally can continue. But if even one were to crack, today's record highs could quickly turn into another stress test.