US inflation, global PMIs, and central bank signals under close scrutiny

This week promises to be a particularly significant turning point for global financial markets, with a macroeconomic calendar packed with key indicators that could influence expectations about growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Investors' attention will be focused primarily on the United States, but also on Europe and the United Kingdom, while numerous speeches by key central bankers will help shape market sentiment. In an environment characterized by still-high yields and evolving expectations, any data release could significantly alter the outlook for stocks, bonds, and currencies.

US inflation in focus

The main focus this week will be US inflation data, with a focus on the consumer price index and the PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure. The latest annual inflation reading came in at 2.4%, while the core index stood at 2.5%, still above the central bank's 2.0% target.

Meanwhile, the annual PCE index increased by 2.8%, confirming a slowdown from previous peaks but highlighting incomplete disinflation. On the monthly front, consumer prices rose by 0.3%, signaling moderate growth but still consistent with prudent monetary policy.

These data will be crucial to understanding whether the Federal Reserve can begin a cycle of monetary easing during 2026 or whether it will be necessary to maintain a restrictive stance for longer. A more marked slowdown in inflation could support equity markets, while a stabilization at elevated levels could keep pressure on bond yields.

US Economic Activity: Mixed Signals Between Growth and Confidence

In addition to inflation, investors will be closely monitoring data on economic growth and manufacturing activity. US GDP grew 4.4% annually in the fourth quarter, confirming the economy's resilience despite the high interest rate environment.

The industrial sector continues to show moderate expansion, with industrial production growing by 1.99% year-on-year, while the capacity utilization rate stood at 76.4%, still consistent with an expansionary phase of the economic cycle.

The real estate sector will also be under scrutiny, with new home sales holding steady at 737,000 units, signaling a stabilization after the volatility of recent months. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index stood at 57.3, reflecting cautious but stable sentiment among American households.

These indicators will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of growth and the ability of the US economy to maintain a positive pace despite still-tight financial conditions.

Europe: PMIs and signs of economic stabilization

In Europe, attention will focus on the PMI indices, key leading indicators of economic activity. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5, slightly below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, while the services PMI reached 51.9, indicating moderate growth in the tertiary sector.

These data suggest a stabilizing European economy, with the services sector continuing to support growth despite the difficulties in the manufacturing sector.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, also remains under observation, with indicators showing mixed signals between industrial weakness and resilience in services.

UK and global trade: consumption and trade flows under observation

In the United Kingdom, annual retail sales grew 2.5%, signaling a moderate recovery in consumption. This figure is an important indicator for assessing the British economy's ability to sustain growth in a context of still-high inflation.

In the United States, the trade deficit stood at -84.72 billion dollars, highlighting a significant imbalance between exports and imports, with significant implications for the value of the dollar and the dynamics of economic growth.

This data will be closely monitored to understand global trade dynamics and their impact on financial markets.

Energy and raw materials: watch out for oil stocks

On the energy front, weekly U.S. oil inventories data showed an increase of 8.53 million barrels, signaling moderate demand and still ample supply.

This data represents a key indicator for the energy market, with direct implications for crude oil prices and, indirectly, for global inflation.

Central banks take center stage: communication and expectations

Interventions from members of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will also play a key role. Markets will be looking for signals regarding the future path of interest rates, in an environment where inflation is moderating but remains above target levels.

Central bank communications will be crucial in shaping investor expectations and influencing the behavior of financial markets.

The future trajectory of the markets will depend on the confirmation of the disinflationary process and the ability of the global economy to maintain stable growth, elements that will continue to define traders' sentiment in the coming weeks.