A key week for markets: US inflation, jobs, and global growth under scrutiny

This week promises to be a decisive one for global financial markets, with a series of key macroeconomic indicators likely to influence expectations about inflation, growth, and monetary policy. Investors will focus particularly on the United States, where consumer price and labor market data will offer crucial insights into the future path of interest rates, while Europe, the United Kingdom, and China will provide important updates on the state of global growth.

US inflation and labor market in focus

The first significant event will come from the United States with the release of the consumer price index, expected to slow from the previous annual increase of 2.7%, while the core component recorded a 2.6% increase. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, signaling a still moderate trend but consistent with inflation above the Federal Reserve's target. These data represent a key benchmark for the U.S. central bank, which continues to closely monitor the pace of the disinflationary process.

In the United States, the labor market will also be a key factor. The unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, confirming a still relatively solid situation, while annual hourly earnings growth reached 3.8%, indicating continued wage pressures. Wage growth is particularly important because it represents one of the main factors supporting inflation in the medium term, directly influencing the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.

Alongside inflation and employment data, leading indicators of economic activity will also be monitored, such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which estimated growth of 4.2% in the fourth quarter. This indication suggests significant resilience of the US economy, despite the more restrictive financial conditions of recent months. Meanwhile, retail sales increased 0.6% monthly, confirming the strength of domestic demand, while import prices rose 0.4%, signaling moderate external cost pressures.

Europe: focus on GDP, employment and trade

On the European front, attention will focus on economic growth and employment. Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) showed a quarterly increase of 0.3% and annual growth of 1.3%, indicating a still moderate but positive expansion. At the same time, employment recorded an annual increase of 0.6%, confirming a gradual improvement in the labor market. These data will be crucial for assessing the European Central Bank's next moves, as it continues to balance the risks of inflation and an economic slowdown.

In the UK, investors will be analyzing growth and industrial production data to assess the strength of the British economy. Previously, manufacturing output had grown 2.1% year-on-year, while overall industrial production had increased 2.3%, indicating an improvement in economic activity after a period of weakness. However, uncertainty surrounding global demand and financial conditions remains a significant risk factor.

China: Inflation and producer prices under observation

China will also be under close scrutiny, with the release of inflation and producer price data. Previously, the consumer price index (CPI) recorded a 0.8% annual increase, while producer prices contracted 1.9%, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in the industrial sector. These data will be crucial for understanding the strength of the recovery in the world's second-largest economy and the potential implications for global demand for raw materials.

Overall, the week will offer a comprehensive overview of the state of the global economy, with key indicators likely to influence expectations about interest rates and growth prospects. Investors will continue to closely monitor signals from inflation and the labor market, which remain the main factors determining the direction of monetary policy.

In this context, any data surprises could generate significant volatility in financial markets, impacting stocks, bonds, and currencies. The combination of still-above-target inflation, resilient growth, and a solid labor market suggests that major central banks will maintain a cautious approach, carefully evaluating each new data point before adjusting their current monetary policy stance.