The coming week will see central banks, inflation, and the first signs of the global cycle.

The week opens with a packed macro agenda, potentially relevant for market sentiment, at a time when investors remain caught between signs of a cyclical slowdown and the need to understand whether monetary tightening has truly exhausted its effects. The focus will be on monetary policy, inflation, and leading growth indicators in the main economic areas.

Central banks under observation

The dominant theme remains central banks. In the United States, the market will continue to grapple with restrictive monetary policy, with the Fed Funds rate stuck at 3.75%, while Treasury yields at auction confirm continued tight financial conditions, with the 7-year bond recently trading around 3.93%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow remains the guiding light for growth expectations, continuing to point to an annualized growth rate of 5.4% for the fourth quarter.

In Europe, attention will focus on ECB communications and eurozone macroeconomic data. Eurozone GDP is expected to grow modestly in the fourth quarter, with a quarterly increase of 0.2%, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 6.3%, signaling a still resilient labor market despite the slowdown in economic activity. In Germany, quarterly GDP is expected to be around 0.2%, following a period of stagnation that continues to weigh on business confidence.

Inflation and confidence: mixed signals

On the price front, inflation data will continue to be a key issue. In Germany, annual inflation is expected to be 2.2%, up slightly from 1.8% previously, while the harmonized index is expected to remain at 2.0%. These figures suggest a path to disinflation that is not yet linear, especially in services.

Confidence indicators will also offer important insights. The German Ifo business confidence index remains depressed, with a recent reading of 88.3, only marginally higher than the previous reading of 87.6. In Italy, the monthly unemployment rate stood at 5.8%, compared to 5.7% the previous month, signaling a slight loss of momentum in the labor market.

United States: jobs, production and domestic demand

In the United States, the macroeconomic calendar will offer a series of useful data to assess the economy's resilience. Initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, with a recent reading around 202,000, while continuing claims are just under 1.85 million, indicating a still solid but gradually normalizing labor market.

On the economic activity front, durable goods orders showed a monthly increase of 0.5%, after a 1.3% contraction in the previous month, suggesting continued uneven industrial demand. Non-farm productivity also remains a focus, with quarterly growth of 4.9%, as it continues to support business margins in a context of lower labor costs.

Asia and China: leading indicators

From Asia, particular attention will be paid to China, with the release of the PMI indices. The manufacturing PMI recently stood at 50.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, levels indicating marginal but fragile expansion. The composite PMI remains just above the growth threshold, at 50.7, confirming a still uneven recovery.

These data will be closely monitored by commodity markets and European industry, given the centrality of Chinese demand to the global cycle.

Energy and the macro-financial context

On the energy front, the market will continue to monitor the evolution of inventories and supply dynamics. Weekly U.S. oil inventories recently increased by approximately 3.6 million barrels, contributing to high energy price volatility in a still-uncertain geopolitical environment.

A key week to calibrate expectations

Overall, the coming week will not be driven by a single decisive event, but by a combination of data that could redefine expectations on growth, inflation, and monetary policy. With macroeconomic indicators still mixed and central banks swayed by caution, markets will remain sensitive to even marginal changes, confirming a phase in which cross-referencing data will matter more than single numbers.