A week of markets focused on safe-haven assets, banking risk, and the return of technology.

The week unfolded on a delicate balance, driven more by news than by linear trends. Markets alternated between periods of seeking protection and sudden returns to risk appetite, in a context dominated by institutional tensions in the United States, geopolitical uncertainty, and conflicting signals from cyclical and technology sectors.

Precious metals at the center: from hedge to strategic pillar

The dominant theme was undoubtedly that of safe haven assets. Gold continued to strengthen its role in global portfolios, no longer just as a defensive instrument, but as a true asset allocation choice. The week closed with the yellow metal at 4,593.95, a level reflecting demand driven by multiple factors: political pressure on the Federal Reserve, declining institutional confidence, and concerns about the stability of the geopolitical environment.

Silver also confirmed its structurally strong momentum, supported by both financial and industrial demand, closing at 88.4205. The metal's movement suggests a market that isn't simply "hedging," but is progressively reallocating capital toward assets perceived as independent of sovereign risk.

Volatile oil, intermittent geopolitical premium

On the energy front, oil experienced a week of sharp fluctuations, with the price driven more by risk perception than fundamentals. Tensions in the Middle East and more conciliatory statements from the White House on Iran helped reduce the geopolitical premium accumulated in previous sessions. Brent closed at 64.54, signaling a market that remains sensitive to any changes in the political landscape but, at the same time, is struggling to establish a stable direction without supply shocks.

This uncertainty was also reflected in energy-related stocks, where profit-taking prevailed during the cooling phases of international tensions.

Italian banks amid denials, ECB oversight, and cautious market sentiment

The banking game continued to occupy center stage, but with a progressive shift in tone. Rumors of possible extraordinary transactions were first amplified and then scaled back by official denials, bringing attention back to the role of European supervisory authorities and the governance constraints that make consolidation more gradual and closely monitored than in the past.

The market reacted with more caution than enthusiasm, a sign of a phase in which investors seem to prioritize regulatory clarity over speculation. At the end of the week, European stocks showed a more defensive performance than Wall Street, with the Euro Stoxx 50 around 6,026.15, while in Milan the FTSE MIB closed at 45,799.69 and the FTSE Italia All Share at 48,653.34.

These figures reflect a banking sector that remains solid in terms of capital, but is caught in a macroeconomic and political context that curbs aggressive moves. The emerging idea is that consolidation is possible, but conditional: excess capital remains a strategic lever, but its use will depend on the authorities' approval and a delicate balance between national interests and European rules.

Technology and semiconductors: AI reignites risk-on

When the news flow shifted to artificial intelligence and semiconductors, the market quickly changed tack. Signs of robust global chip demand and indications of future investment revived buying in the technology sector, confirming that AI remains the primary structural driver in the medium term.

This renewed confidence has fostered a selective rotation, with investors willing to return to risk as long as it's supported by visibility on earnings and capital expenditures. Technology thus confirms its position as the area where the market is willing to "forgive" high valuations in exchange for credible growth.

Wall Street: Profits, Politics, and Compressed Volatility

In the United States, the week was characterized by a combination of unsurprising macroeconomic data and the start of the banking earnings season. The market reacted cautiously but with no signs of systemic stress. At the end of the week, the Dow Jones closed at 49,359.33, the S&P 500 at 6,940.01, and the Nasdaq at 23,515.39, levels reflecting a phase of consolidation following recent highs.

Perhaps the most significant data is that of volatility: the VIX stood at 15.47, confirming that, despite the political and geopolitical noise, the market is not pricing in scenarios of imminent crisis, but rather a phase of manageable uncertainty.

Europe and Italy: a more cautious tone

In Europe, stocks showed a more defensive stance. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at 6,026.15, while in Milan the FTSE MIB stopped at 45,799.69, with the FTSE Italia All Share at 48,653.34. These numbers suggest a market less reactive than Wall Street, more sensitive to domestic issues and the Eurozone macroeconomic picture.

Currencies: Dollar less convincing

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar closed the week on a weaker note, consistent with institutional tensions in the United States and expectations of less restrictive monetary policy later in the year. The EUR/USD exchange rate settled at 1.1599, while the USD/JPY closed at 158.12, levels reflecting a gradual fading of the greenback's strength.