A week of macro uncertainty, tech gains, and soaring gold.

The week just ended with markets under multiple pressures: uncertain macroeconomic data, closely monitored corporate earnings, trade tensions, and a marked rotation into safe-haven assets. From January 19th to 23rd, the market was poised between risk and protection, with news ranging from corporate data to geopolitical risks and sector dynamics.

Italian banks and profits under scrutiny

Among the week's top news, the Italian banking sector has attracted analysts' attention. In particular, Barclays has identified Bper Banca as a favorite among Italian banks, based on its view of stable profitability and fee growth prospects, despite its low risk weightings and attractive dividend payout for 2026.

At the same time, the narrative surrounding banking risk continued: procedures for compiling board lists, governance, and institutional roles returned to the spotlight, maintaining high volatility among Italian banks.

Tech and Corporate Profits: From Netflix to Intel

Over the course of the week, financial markets have been paying increasing attention to the earnings season, especially in the technology sector. Following Intel's disappointment, with lower-than-expected guidance and a sell-off in its stock, it has been highlighted how Wall Street is navigating uncertainty and high expectations for the upcoming results from major companies like Apple, Microsoft, Metacasino, and Tesla.

This dynamic has highlighted the market structure: on the one hand, technology remains a driver of potential growth, on the other, earnings must meet expectations to sustain high valuations, especially in a time of global slowdown.

Trade tensions and macro shifts

Trade tensions continued to weigh on markets: attention focused on selling on Wall Street linked to fears of a possible trade war between the United States and the European Union, with threats of US tariffs weakening sentiment and fueling a rush to safe-haven assets.

This narrative has intertwined with discussions on the European front, where fiscal policies, banking governance, and economic growth prospects have been discussed in a scenario of inflation that, while lower than its peak, is not yet completely under control.

Energy and raw materials: oil and gold still at the center

On the commodity front, oil showed considerable strength: Brent crude rose to $65.89 a barrel, finding support in geopolitical dynamics and risk sentiment. Overall, energy prices responded to the international narrative, albeit without significant directional increases.

Precious metals, on the other hand, played a key role. Gold consolidated its gains, closing around $4,974.99 an ounce, reflecting continued demand for hedging amid uncertainties about growth and monetary policy. Silver, which ended the week at $101.32, accompanied this phase with a significant rise, highlighting how safe-haven assets have returned to the forefront of defensive allocations.

Currencies and risk outlook

On the currency front, cross-currency markets highlighted persistent pressure on the dollar, penalized by expectations of less restrictive monetary policy in the United States and increased perceived systemic risks. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose to the 1.18 area, while the pound strengthened significantly, with GBP/USD rising to 1.3615, signaling a growing preference for alternative currencies to the greenback amid global uncertainty.

The dollar also lost ground against safe-haven currencies, with USD/JPY falling to 155.94 and USD/CHF to around 0.7846. Among commodity currencies, the move was supported by the USD/CAD's decline to 1.3707, driven by oil's resilience. Overall, the currency market reflects a more cautious and less dollar-focused asset allocation, with a selective rotation toward the euro, sterling, and defensive currencies.

Equities: differentiated performance

From an equity perspective, the close reflected a mixed performance. At the European level, the main indices closed without major directional changes. The FTSE MIB closed around 44,831.60 points, in a session impacted by profit-taking in cyclical and financial stocks. European markets generally showed a certain degree of caution, with the Euro Stoxx 50 not far from equilibrium levels.

In the United States, the S&P 500 closed at around 6,921.13, supported by the tech component, while the Nasdaq settled near 23,537.82. The Dow Jones suffered sector pressure from selling in industrials and financials.

Implied volatility, measured by the VIX, remained at compressed levels, reflecting a market less nervous than the news flow might suggest, but still ready to react to new developments.

A market picture to be read between the lines

Markets no longer travel on simple lines, commercial risk dynamics, earnings seasons, monetary policy outlooks and macro signals push investors to a defensive attitude, but with selective openings towards stocks and assets with visibility on earnings.

2026 continues to shape up as a year in which information quality, portfolio discipline, and risk balance will be key factors in navigating a market that remains extremely rich in variables and potential surprises.