Today the markets bet on a truce (but the costs remain very high)

Today sent a signal to the markets: a desire for risk... albeit cautiously. Stocks, oil, industrial metals, and even safe-haven assets like gold and silver closed higher, driven by an unusual mix of geopolitics, hopes for a truce, and new energy sanctions. This fragile balance reveals a lot about investors' mood: ready to believe in a détente, but still wary of any potential repercussions.

All risk indicators are rising

It was a broad-based rebound for risk-on assets . In the United States, the S&P 500 gained around 0.45% , while the Nasdaq rose above 0.70% , led by technology and industrial stocks. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.50% , with energy and manufacturing performing above average.

Brent crude oil also returned to the rise, rising 5.75% to around $66.2 a barrel , while American WTI closed just below $61.3 , its highest since early October. The move was driven by the simultaneous announcement of new American and European sanctions against Russian oil producers , including Rosneft and Lukoil.

A move that immediately tightened supply expectations, pushing up both crude oil prices and energy-related stocks.

Gold and silver in dual function: safe haven and production

Precious metals also rose on the day, but for opposite reasons. Gold closed around $4,135 an ounce , up about 1.0% , supported by demand for portfolio protection following the sanctions announcement. At the same time, silver rose more than 1.15% to $49.1 , benefiting from the industrial component: a significant portion of silver demand—over 50%—comes from manufacturing applications, particularly electronics and solar panels.

When the market bets on a recovery in industrial activity, silver moves strongly. And today, amid sanctions and hopes for a truce, the message was precisely this: real demand could rebound.

Sanctions and geopolitics: between tension and openness

The coordinated sanctions between Washington and Brussels aim to weaken the Russian energy sector and reopen diplomatic dialogue. According to several international agencies, the United States has hit Russian crude oil and gas exports with new restrictions on payments and maritime transport, while the European Union has expanded the list of affected companies and intermediaries.

Paradoxically, this tightening of sanctions was interpreted by the markets as a signal of pressure useful for forcing a negotiating table . Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky , for his part, spoke for the first time in months of a "phase of reflection on the conditions of a truce," fueling cautious optimism.

However, the reaction of Moscow and Beijing remains uncertain . Russia has called the Western measures "hostile," while China—Moscow's strategic partner—has avoided direct statements, maintaining a balanced position. The result is a market treading water: rising, yes, but with the handbrake on.

The stock market paradox: it grows even when everything costs more.

One thing stands out today: stocks are rising while corporate costs rise . Higher energy prices, harder-to-find raw materials, and persistent geopolitical tensions are making life difficult for businesses, especially in the manufacturing and technology sectors.

And yet, stock markets are celebrating. It's the classic paradox of transitional phases: the market doesn't look to the present, but to what might happen . Investors are betting on a scenario in which sanctions take effect quickly, the Eastern front cools, and industrial demand returns to growth. As long as this narrative holds, stock prices can rise even in an environment of high costs and pressured margins.

A signal, not a turning point

The final impression is that today represents more of a signal than a turning point . The rally was fueled by emotional factors rather than economic data. Hopes for a truce and the positive reaction from cyclical sectors indicate that the market is willing to look ahead, but fundamentals remain complex: rates remain high, core inflation is not entirely under control, and geopolitical risk is at the forefront.

Investors should approach this movement with caution: seize the opportunities, but keep in mind that volatility could return at any time. Gold and silver remain valid hedges, while the energy and industrial sectors remain the most sensitive to geopolitical news.

In summary

Today, markets have chosen optimism, albeit cautiously. Stocks are rallying, oil is rising, and metals are shining. But behind the rally lies the awareness that the price of hope, for businesses, is increasingly high .