A busy week of macroeconomic events: inflation, PMIs, and the Fed under observation

The coming week comes at a delicate time for financial markets, caught between a slowdown in global economic activity, still conflicting signals on inflation, and the wait to see when and how deeply major central banks will be able to ease monetary policy.

After a year-end characterized by low volumes and a climate still favorable for risky assets, the macro agenda in the coming days could bring attention back to fundamentals, with a series of data capable of impacting sentiment, especially on rates, currencies, and commodities.

Asia: China remains the first test of the week

Attention will focus primarily on Asia, where several key indicators will be released from China. In particular, the official PMIs and Caixin will provide an updated snapshot of the state of the Chinese economy, both in manufacturing and services.

In recent months, Beijing has shown only partial signs of stabilization, with domestic demand still fragile and the real estate sector far from a true recovery. An improvement in PMIs could strengthen expectations of stronger growth in the first quarter, while weak data would reopen the debate on further fiscal and monetary stimulus from the Chinese authorities.

Also in Asia, bank lending data from Singapore and monetary indicators from some emerging economies will offer useful insights into the resilience of credit in a context of still-high interest rates.

Europe: Inflation and economic activity at the centre

In Europe, the week will be dominated by inflation and manufacturing trends. The first consumer price readings are coming out in Spain, along with the harmonized indices, which are one of the main indicators of inflation in the euro area.

Disinflation has continued in recent months, but unevenly, and any surprises could affect expectations about the European Central Bank's next steps. A further slowdown would reinforce the idea of stable rates for a prolonged period, while signs of rigidity would reopen questions about the timing of any cuts.

Still on the European front, close attention is being paid to manufacturing PMIs in France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. These indicators remain crucial for assessing whether the European economy is finally hitting a cyclical low or whether the weakness is set to continue.

In recent surveys, the manufacturing sector has continued to move in contraction territory, signaling growth that is still fragile and heavily dependent on foreign demand.

United States: Fed, labor market and housing

In the United States, the focus will be on a combination of macroeconomic data and monetary policy meetings. The first key milestone will be the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, a document investors will be analyzing for clues about the future direction of interest rates and the Federal Reserve's confidence in the disinflation process.

The Fed's words remain crucial at a time when the market continues to question the timing of any monetary easing, especially after a series of conflicting macroeconomic data.

On the macroeconomic front, particular attention will be paid to the labor market, with weekly unemployment claims. In recent months, this indicator has shown signs of a gradual cooling, but without any marked deterioration, confirming a resilience that continues to support consumption.

The real estate sector will also remain under observation, with data on home sales and pending contracts essential for assessing the impact of high interest rates on housing demand.

Oil, stocks and investor positioning

On the commodity front, attention will be focused on US oil inventory data, which is always a key indicator of crude oil movements, especially at a time when the market remains sensitive to any signs of a supply-demand imbalance.

Completing the picture will also be the CFTC's speculative positions on currencies, stock indices, and commodities, a useful indicator for understanding how institutional investors are moving and whether market positioning is excessively unbalanced.