Key events of the week: focus on inflation, jobs, and central banks

This week promises to be a particularly busy one for global financial markets, with a concentration of medium- to high-level macroeconomic events that could impact volatility in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Investors will focus primarily on data on inflation, the labor market, and economic growth, while numerous speeches by major central bankers will help shape expectations for monetary policy.

Europe: Inflation and confidence under observation

On the European front, the main focus will be on price data and economic sentiment. In Germany, the market will be monitoring the IFO Business Confidence Index, expected to reach 88.4 after the previous reading, along with business expectations stable at 90.5. These indicators represent an important gauge for assessing the resilience of Europe's industrial powerhouse in a still fragile environment.

Eurozone inflation data is also receiving considerable attention. The European annual CPI previously showed a reading of 1.7, while the core index (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.2, figures that continue to influence expectations about the ECB's next moves. At the national level, Italy will release business and consumer confidence data, which stand at 89.2 and 96.8, respectively, useful for understanding the direction of domestic demand.

There will also be several institutional interventions, including speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and members of the Governing Council, events that can often generate sudden movements, especially in the euro/dollar exchange rate.

United States: Jobs and growth take center stage

In the United States, the week will feature a series of high-impact data related to the labor market and economic activity. Initial jobless claims will be particularly closely watched, following the previous reading of 216,000, along with continuing claims, which stood at 1,869,000, key indicators for assessing the strength of the American economy.

On the real estate and consumer front, also pay attention to the house price index data and the consumer confidence report, which is expected to read 87.6, a sign of still positive sentiment despite the high interest rate environment.

Also of interest is the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, which stands at 3.1%, which provides a real-time estimate of US growth. Meanwhile, several members of the Federal Reserve will intervene throughout the week, helping to maintain market sensitivity to the path of interest rates.

Asia and the Pacific: Inflation and Signs of Stability

In the Asia-Pacific region, investors will be watching inflation data from Japan and Australia in particular. In Japan, the consumer price index remains close to the 1.9% mark, while in Australia, attention will focus on the annual inflation weighted average of 3.7%, a key indicator for the Australian central bank's decisions.

From China, on the other hand, updates will come on the PBoC's reference rates, with the preferred rate at 3.50, a figure which continues to reflect a more accommodative monetary approach compared to Western economies.

Canada and France: growth and consumption

Canada will release several GDP data, with the previous annualized reading coming in at 2.6%, important numbers for understanding the pace of growth of the North American economy outside the United States. In France, meanwhile, markets will be watching GDP and inflation data, with annual growth expected at 1.1%, while consumer spending remains a key factor in the European economy's stability.

Raw materials and speculative positioning

In addition to traditional macro data, the week will also include important updates on investor positioning in commodity and index markets. Previous net speculative positions in gold stood at 159.9K, while those in crude oil stood at 141.3K, useful signals for understanding institutional sentiment.

US rig data (Baker Hughes), previously at 409, will also provide important insights into energy supply and the future outlook for the oil sector.

Conclusion: A highly sensitive week for the markets

Overall, next week promises to be eventful and impactful on global sentiment. Europe will focus primarily on inflation and economic confidence, the United States will continue to monitor jobs and growth, while Asia and the Pacific will provide valuable insights into global inflation dynamics.

For investors, the message remains clear: the current phase requires selectivity and attention to real data rather than short-term narratives. With such a busy calendar, any surprises compared to expectations could quickly translate into significant market movements, making it essential to carefully read key indicators and central bank communications.