Piazza Affari is focused on deals, healthcare, and defense; Wall Street is returning to the Fed, while commodities remain jittery.

The week between the end of the year and the start of the new ended with a market more about news than direction, due to reduced liquidity and often amplified movements. The common thread, however, is clear: in 2026, investors will continue to weigh two variables above all else: the trajectory of interest rates and the stability of growth. In this context, in Milan, corporate dossiers set the pace, while in the United States, the market once again looks to the Federal Reserve's signals. In the background, commodities and currencies confirm that volatility has not disappeared: it's just changing its target.

Europe: Milan better than Germany, but without any major changes

At Piazza Affari, the FTSE MIB closed up 0.96% at 45,374 points, confirming its strong performance compared to other European markets. The move reflects a combination of corporate events (M&A, healthcare, defense) rather than a true shift in macroeconomic sentiment.

The DAX was more cautious, ending the session with a modest gain (+0.14% to 24,523 points). Germany continues to balance signs of cyclical stabilization with concerns about global demand, especially industrial demand.

Nexi accelerates domestic consolidation

One of the most significant developments in Milan concerns Nexi, which has reached an agreement to acquire the merchant acquiring operations of Banca Popolare di Sondrio. The transaction is part of the strategy outlined by the Valtellina-based bank in its business plan and complements an existing commercial relationship for payment services. Essentially, the rationale is to better integrate the offering to business customers, streamlining the issuing and acquiring process and strengthening Nexi's position in banking distribution.

On the strategic front, the message is twofold: on the one hand, Nexi continues to focus on the Italian payments industry with targeted moves; on the other, expectations of a one-off transaction with Worldline are cooling, at least in the short term, following the words of the French group's CEO, who reiterated the priority of recapitalization and a return to cash generation.

Diasorin: US catalyst and focus on "new" growth

Diasorin also stands out, buoyed by the FDA's approval of a multiplex respiratory test intended for its next-generation point-of-care platform. The key, rather than the immediate impact on the financial statements, is its industrial significance: the approval opens the door to commercial launch and marks a more structural entry into the PoC segment, one of the few where demand remains robust even in less favorable economic cycles.

The market has interpreted the news as a potential medium-term catalyst, especially since the group is building its sales and distribution network around the new platform. Meanwhile, the buyback plan announced before Christmas remains on the table, a factor some analysts interpret as a sign of management's confidence.

Defense under pressure: the trend doesn't change, the timing does.

The defense sector had a profitable day. Leonardo and other European names sold off after Donald Trump's optimistic statements about a possible solution to the conflict in Ukraine. It's a classic headline risk move: profit-taking in a sector coming off a very strong year when the short-term geopolitical premium is diminishing.

The structural trend, however, remains unchanged. Even with signs of easing, the trajectory of European military spending remains politically consolidated. In the short term, however, with valuations strained, sensitivity to news remains high.

Wall Street: Interest Rates Still at the Center of the Game

In the United States, the market continues to question the Federal Reserve, with well-positioned indices lacking a clear direction. The S&P 500 is consolidating at 6,830, reflecting investor uncertainty, torn between the "higher for longer" scenario and the possibility of a gradual easing of monetary policy over the course of 2026. The Nasdaq is showing even greater sensitivity to Fed minutes and communications, with the technology sector reacting amplified to every nuance of the central bank's message. The Dow Jones is more defensive (+0.17% to 48,143), supported by greater exposure to industrials and value stocks, which tend to suffer less in a high-interest-rate environment.

In this context, employment and inflation remain the key variables for interpreting the cycle: with valuations already stretched across large segments of the market, today the tone of the Federal Reserve matters more for Wall Street than any single macroeconomic data.

Commodities are on edge: silver leads the way, oil is under scrutiny

On the commodity front, gold is moving in a directionless fashion, just below $4,330, reflecting an unstable balance between geopolitical hedging and a strong dollar.

Silver remains the real star: after the rally, the metal is trading around $72 with strong volatility. Speculation, physical availability, and the Chinese supply chain continue to intertwine, making the movement fragile and subject to rapid corrections.

WTI oil fell towards $57, penalized by profit-taking and a market that remains highly sensitive to the balance between supply and demand, despite the geopolitical noise.

Forex: Strong dollar, euro and yen under pressure

On the foreign exchange market, the dollar continues to maintain a strong position. The euro slipped slightly against the greenback, with the EUR/USD exchange rate hovering around 1.1734, a sign that the market continues to price in a more restrictive Federal Reserve than the ECB. At the same time, the yen remains under pressure, with the USD/JPY stable around 156.8: a level that reflects the Japanese currency's persistent fragility and the Bank of Japan's limited room for maneuver, forced to move extremely cautiously to avoid destabilizing the market.

Auto: Tesla under pressure, BYD consolidates

The auto sector continues to experience an increasingly difficult competitive transition. Tesla is showing signs of fatigue in Europe, while BYD consolidates its overtaking of the market in terms of volumes. The real challenge for 2026 will not only be growth, but the ability to defend margins and positioning in an increasingly price-sensitive market.