Markets suspended between war, oil, and real data: the weekend that put risk back in the spotlight

Between Saturday 18th, Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st April the market returned to look at one thing above all: energy

Within hours, the Strait of Hormuz once again became the dominant theme. After a brief reopening on Friday, the passage was effectively blocked again, while tensions between Washington and Tehran rose along with the military threat. The numbers clearly explain why the markets reacted immediately: on Tuesday, only three ships passed through the strait in the last 24 hours , compared to an average of around 140 per day before the war that began on February 28. Meanwhile, 20,000 seafarers and at least 61 non-Iranian supertankers remain stranded in the Gulf, 50 of which are already loaded, each with up to 2 million barrels . This is a classic case of the market not waiting for the damage fully visible in the macroeconomic data: it first prices in the logistical risk, then the energy risk, and only then the economic risk.

This risk was clearly visible in oil on Monday. Brent crude closed at $95.48 a barrel, up 5.64% , while WTI rose to $89.61 , a jump of 6.87% . On Tuesday, the market tried to oscillate between diplomatic hope and fear of a new escalation, but in the end the signal remained tense: US crude was again up 3.16% to $92.44 , while Brent crude stood at $97.02 , or +1.64% . In other words, the market's message is simple: until Hormuz is truly operational again, any diplomatic headline is worth less than the physical risk on energy routes.

Geopolitics was not limited to Hormuz: the Lebanese front also undermined the credibility of the truce

The problem for the markets is that there hasn't been a single outbreak. The 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah, which went into effect on Thursday, April 16 , appeared fragile from the start: in the hours that followed, the Lebanese army reported violations with intermittent shelling of villages in the south. On Monday, Israel consolidated its presence in a swathe of territory in southern Lebanon, while on Tuesday, Beirut reported new explosions in at least eight villages and the persistence of an Israeli-controlled zone extending 5 to 10 kilometers along the border. For a global investor, this matters a lot: if the truce on the Lebanese front falters, it becomes harder to believe the entire regional crisis will stabilize quickly.

This is also the context for Donald Trump's statements, which have kept markets in a kind of limbo over the past two days. On the one hand, Washington continues to make it clear that the negotiating channel with Iran is not dead and that Pakistan remains the most likely candidate for a new round. On the other, on Tuesday, Trump made it clear that he does not intend to extend the ceasefire, adding that the US military is "ready to go." Meanwhile, Pakistan is still awaiting formal confirmation from Tehran regarding the sending of a delegation, while on Sunday the United States seized an Iranian cargo ship that allegedly attempted to breach the blockade. Tehran responded by calling it "armed piracy" and refusing, for now, to set a new date for the talks. Here's the key point: the market is no longer pricing in peace, but the possibility that diplomacy will fail at the last minute.

Yet the stock markets haven't collapsed: they're just becoming more selective.

The reaction of the stock indices between Monday and Tuesday was significant precisely because it was not one of full-blown panic. On Monday, the Dow Jones lost just 4.74 points to close at 49,442.69 , the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% to 7,109.17 and the Nasdaq 0.3% to 24,404.39 . In Europe, the STOXX 600 lost 0.8% . On Tuesday, the picture remained nervous but not disorderly: the Dow -0.07% to 49,407.09 , the S&P 500 -0.15% to 7,098.71 , while the Nasdaq even managed to close up 0.05% to 24,415.85 ; the STOXX 600 lost another 0.77% . This says a lot about the moment: there's no widespread flight from risk, but rather a decline in enthusiasm. The market continues to believe that a diplomatic solution is still possible, but it no longer sees it as imminent or straightforward.

The same pattern was seen in rates, gold, and currencies. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.258% on Monday, then fell to 4.292% on Tuesday. The dollar index fell to 98.07 on Monday, with the euro at $ 1.1785 , but on Tuesday the greenback regained ground to 98.26 , while the euro fell to $1.1757 . Meanwhile, spot gold, which often accompanies periods of maximum tension, retreated from $ 4,815.29 to $4,752.02 an ounce between Monday and Tuesday. Here, too, the message is clear: the markets are not buying an immediate recession, but are pricing in higher energy inflation, fewer rate cuts, and growth that risks becoming more fragile.

Meanwhile, the real economy is sending signals that further complicate the reading of the markets.

While geopolitics dominated headlines, numbers also emerged that suggest the economy is less weak than the general sentiment would suggest. In the United States, March retail sales rose 1.7% monthly, with a record 15.5% jump in gas station revenues. This isn't a minor detail, as part of the resilience in consumption stems from the energy shock, not from healthy growth in demand. Also in the US, the latest available Fed data show that bank commercial and industrial loans rose to $2,863.1 billion , up from $2,854.1 billion the previous week and $ 2,662.4 billion a year earlier. This isn't yet credit euphoria, but it's a sign that the economy continues to move despite higher energy and financial costs.

Interesting signs are also emerging outside the West. In Europe, registrations of electric and plug-in hybrid cars rose 37% year-over-year to nearly 540,000 units in March, helping bring the global figure to over 1.7 million vehicles, up 3% year-over-year; in major European markets, a Reuters video even reports an increase of nearly a third in the first quarter. In Indonesia, first-quarter investments reached approximately 497 trillion rupiah , equivalent to approximately $29 billion , up 7% from the previous year. These numbers are important because they show that, beneath the surface of geopolitical noise, capital continues to move where it sees growth, industrial transformation, and future demand.

The true story of these days

The real story of the weekend and the trading sessions on Monday, April 20th , and Tuesday, April 21st, is not whether the markets "held up," but how they held up. They absorbed a new blockade on Hormuz, a broken truce in Lebanon, the seizure of an Iranian ship, uncertainty surrounding talks in Pakistan, and a White House alternating between negotiating language and military threats. Yet they didn't react with a disorderly collapse: they raised oil prices, tightened rates, kept the dollar relatively strong, and only partially reduced appetite for equities. It's the snapshot of a market that lacks confidence, but isn't yet willing to surrender to the worst-case scenario. Precisely for this reason, it remains vulnerable: when expectations are suspended between agreement and escalation, a single event is enough to suddenly shift prices, yields, and the narrative.