A week of uncertainty and setbacks: markets suspended between the Fed, geopolitics, and the rush to metals.

The financial week that ends today had a clear underlying theme: markets forced to navigate unstable terrain, where every positive sign was counterbalanced by new sources of uncertainty. Expected but inconclusive monetary policy decisions, persistent geopolitical tensions, and increasingly pronounced movements in raw materials have made the environment difficult to interpret with a single lens. Rather than a matter of direction, it has been a matter of an often precarious balance between opposing forces.

A Fed that cuts, but doesn't fully reassure

The highlight of the week was undoubtedly the Federal Reserve meeting. The 25 basis point rate cut, the third in 2025, was widely priced in by the markets. What was surprising wasn't the decision itself, but the context surrounding it. The split vote—nine in favor, three against—highlighted an increasingly visible internal divide, while the dot plot indicated a very gradual easing path, with only one cut expected in 2026.

Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of a cooling in the labor market, citing the surge in weekly jobless claims to 236,000, the largest increase in nearly four and a half years. At the same time, however, he avoided offering clear indications of a future acceleration of cuts. The decision to resume $40 billion in monthly Treasury purchases was seen as an accommodative signal, but not enough to completely dispel uncertainty.

The result was an indecisive US stock market: Wall Street fluctuated without a clear direction, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declining for the week, around -1.3% and -1.9% respectively, reflecting a mix of relief over monetary support and fears over an increasingly unpredictable Fed in the medium term.

Technology and Artificial Intelligence: From Growth to Margins

In the technology sector, and particularly in artificial intelligence stocks, the week marked a shift in tone. The Broadcom case became a case in point. Despite better-than-expected quarterly results and a rapidly expanding order book, the stock suffered sharp sell-offs after management reported declining margins, linked to a revenue mix increasingly skewed toward low-profitability AI components.

The market's reaction has reignited a debate that had previously been on the back burner: the transition from an "AI growth" phase to an "AI profitability" phase. After months in which revenue growth was sufficient to sustain high valuations, investors now appear to be demanding greater visibility on margins and earnings sustainability, especially looking ahead to 2026. This signal doesn't necessarily signal the end of the AI theme, but it does suggest a more selective and less lenient approach.

Europe more stable, but without momentum

In Europe, the picture appeared relatively more composed. Indices closed the week with moderate declines—the FTSE MIB around 43,500 points, the DAX just above 24,000—benefiting from a more defensive sector structure and less restrictive monetary policy expectations compared to the United States.

In forex, the euro held up well against the dollar, trading around 1.17, supported by the perception that the ECB will remain cautious but careful not to further tighten financial conditions. The dollar, for its part, is headed for its third consecutive week of decline, reflecting uncertainty about the future pace of the Fed's rate cuts.

Piazza Affari between bank holdings and strategic moves

Piazza Affari has shown relative resilience, once again supported by the banking sector and several notable corporate stories. This is the context for Poste Italiane's move to acquire Telecom Italia, exceeding its 27% stake. The transaction, financed entirely with cash and accompanied by a commitment to remain below the takeover threshold, strengthened Poste's role as a long-term industrial shareholder.

The market interpreted the news more as a sign of strategic stabilization than as a prelude to imminent extraordinary transactions. The issues of potential synergies, the rationalization of broadband operations, and the conversion of savings shares remain open, elements that continue to represent key turning points in the stock's history.

Oil caught between diplomacy and new frictions

The oil market has had a particularly jittery week. On the one hand, news of possible progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has exerted downward pressure, fueling the idea that a de-escalation could, over time, bring back to the market some of the supply currently blocked by sanctions.

On the other hand, the weekend rebound was triggered by rumors of new seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers by the United States, a move that rekindled supply concerns. Brent crude thus remained at around $61 a barrel, in a fragile balance between opposing forces.

Further complicating the picture is a report from CNPC, which estimates that Chinese oil demand could plateau as early as 2025 and 2030, due to the accelerated spread of electric vehicles. This signal reinforces the idea that the market is destined to remain volatile, rather than directional.

Precious metals take center stage: gold consolidates, silver accelerates

While oil remained trapped in uncertainty, precious metals followed a very different trajectory. Gold reached new all-time highs above $4,300 an ounce, supported by the Fed's rate cut, falling real yields, and institutional demand that remains structurally high.

Even more surprising was the performance of silver, which rose above $64 an ounce, with a year-to-date gain of over 100%. The movement was driven not only by the search for safe havens, but also by growing industrial demand and a perception of increasingly tight supply, reinforced by silver's designation as a critical mineral in the United States.

These movements fit into the framework outlined by Deutsche Bank's World Outlook 2026, which identifies precious metals as one of the key junctures of the new cycle, characterized by more "sticky" inflation, structurally relevant geopolitics, and central banks less aligned than in the past.

Copper and the transition: the deficit as a common thread

Copper also confirmed a solid week, trading around $11,600 a ton. According to Morgan Stanley, the market could face a deficit of nearly 600,000 tonnes as early as 2026, driven by demand from data centers, energy storage systems, and the electricity transition. The red metal thus continues to be one of the most sensitive indicators of the structural changes underway in the global economy.

Emerging currencies under pressure

On the currency front, while the dollar lost momentum and the yen recovered slightly, the Indian rupee hit new all-time lows above 90 against the dollar. Capital outflows and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with Washington continue to weigh heavily, reminding us that the environment of high interest rates and uneven growth remains challenging for many emerging economies.

A week that anticipates a regime change

Overall, the week depicted markets poised between worry and relief. A less linear Fed, geopolitics increasingly intertwined with commodity dynamics, and the return of metals as key players all point to a financial system in full transition.

2026 is already shaping up to be anything but ordinary. And, at least for now, investors seem to be proceeding cautiously, more focused on reading the signs than chasing certainties.