A key week for markets: US inflation, global growth, and mixed signals from advanced economies

The coming week promises to be packed with macroeconomic events that could impact market sentiment, amid selective volatility and a fragile balance between growth expectations and continued restrictive monetary policies. Investors' attention will be focused primarily on US data related to inflation and growth, while also monitoring signals from Asia and Europe, which are useful for assessing the strength of the global economic cycle.

Asia: Monetary Policies and First Signs from the Industrial Cycle

The week begins with China, where the People's Bank of China will announce its preferred lending rate, currently set at 3.50% for one-year maturities and 3.00% for five-year maturities. Market consensus does not predict any immediate changes, but any changes would have significant signaling value, especially given the ongoing difficulties in the real estate sector and continued uneven growth.

Several significant indicators will be released from Japan. In particular, November's industrial production and retail sales will offer important indications of the resilience of domestic demand, following a recovery in the previous months. Pay close attention to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, which could provide insights into the Bank of Japan's internal debate regarding a possible gradual normalization of its ultra-accommodative policy.

United Kingdom and Europe: Weak growth and mixed signals

In the United Kingdom, the spotlight will be on third-quarter GDP data, expected to show slight growth both quarterly and annually, confirming modest economic expansion. The current account remains a focus of attention for international investors, as does business investment, which had shown signs of weakness in previous surveys.

In continental Europe, Italy's November PPI data will be closely monitored to assess the evolution of cost pressures along the supply chain, amid a backdrop of gradually cooling inflation. Third-quarter GDP figures will be released from the Netherlands, useful for measuring the resilience of one of the eurozone's most robust economies.

Overall, the European picture continues to suggest fragile growth, which explains the European Central Bank's cautious approach in shaping the future path of monetary policy.

United States: Inflation, growth and the labor market under scrutiny

The focus of the week will be on the United States. The most anticipated data is the PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which in the latest annual survey stood at 2.8%, with monthly growth still moderate. These numbers are consistent with a gradual slowdown in inflationary pressures, but not yet sufficient to allow for a decisive easing of monetary policy.

Data on personal income and spending, which rose by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively in the latest available data, will also be released. These are key elements for assessing the strength of consumption, the main driver of US growth.

On the growth front, third-quarter GDP will be updated from a previous estimate of 3.8% annualized, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates growth of around 3.5% for the fourth quarter. Corporate profits, which had shown modest growth, will also provide insights into companies' ability to absorb still-high costs.

The labor market will remain under observation, with initial jobless claims expected to be around 220,000, and consumer confidence indicators recently improving after the recovery seen in recent surveys.

Raw materials and investor positioning

Completing the picture will be data on weekly oil inventories, which in the last survey showed a significant decline, a potentially significant factor for crude oil price trends. Furthermore, the publication of CFTC speculative positions on currencies, stocks, and commodities will offer a useful snapshot of institutional investors' positioning, at a time when the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic surprises.

A scenario still open

Overall, the week could reinforce two possible interpretations: on the one hand, a scenario of a controlled slowdown, with inflation gradually declining and growth still solid in the United States; on the other, a scenario of prolonged uncertainty, in which conflicting data forces central banks to maintain a cautious approach for longer than expected.