A crucial week for markets: between central banks, inflation, and global macro signals.

Next week promises to be particularly busy with macroeconomic events that could impact financial markets. Market participants will be focusing on monetary policy decisions, inflation data, and leading indicators of the global economy, in a context that remains fragile and characterized by strong divergences between the main economic regions.

The macro context: a slowdown yes, but not uniform

In recent months, mixed signals have emerged. On the one hand, inflation appears to have surpassed the peaks of the previous two years (2.2% in the Eurozone in November and 3.0% in the United States in September), on the other, economic growth appears increasingly uneven: Europe continues to show signs of weakness, while the United States maintains surprising resilience, especially in the labor market and consumer spending (unemployment rate at 4.4% and wage growth around 4% annually). In Asia, China remains under special observation, with stimulus policies struggling to translate into a solid recovery (industrial production grew around 4.9% annually).

In this context, central banks are moving with extreme caution, trying to balance the risk of an excessive slowdown with the need to keep inflation expectations under control.

Monday: Asia and first global indications

The week opens with Japan, where Tankan data on investment and business confidence will offer important insights into companies' risk appetite (the index currently stands at 14, an improvement over previous quarters), at a time when the Bank of Japan remains one of the last major central banks with a still very accommodative monetary policy.

Numerous key data will be released from China: industrial production, retail sales, fixed investment, and the unemployment rate. These figures will help determine whether the recent support measures are starting to have a tangible impact on the real economy (retail sales grew by about 2.9% annually in the latest available data).

In Europe, early data on industrial production and inflation expectations from the UK will begin to set the stage for decisions in the coming days.

Tuesday: Inflation and commodities under observation

Attention will then shift to the United Kingdom, with the release of inflation and producer price data (CPI expected to be around 3.9% annually). These numbers will be particularly relevant ahead of the Bank of England meeting, as they could influence the domestic debate on whether it is necessary to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer.

In the United States, as usual, oil inventory data will offer insights for the commodity market (latest figure -1.8 million barrels), while speculative positions on major currencies will provide a snapshot of investor positioning.

Wednesday: European Confidence and Signals from the Fed

On the European front, the German IFO index will be one of the most closely watched indicators for assessing business confidence in the eurozone's largest economy (latest reading at 88.1 points). Weak data would confirm the area's structural difficulties, while any positive surprises could be interpreted as signs of stabilization.

In the United States, speeches by some FOMC members and data on crude oil inventories could fuel volatility, especially if indications emerge that diverge from market expectations on future rate cuts (currently priced around just one cut in 2026).

Thursday: The test for central banks

The highlight of the week will undoubtedly be the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged (Bank Rate at 4%, with a potential cut expected in December), but attention will be focused on the tone of the statement, the MPC's internal votes, and Governor Bailey's words. Even small changes in language could be interpreted as signals of future easing or, conversely, a continued cautious stance.

The ECB is not expected to make any rate changes (deposit rate at 2%), but the press conference will be crucial. Investors will be looking for indications of the timing and depth of any cuts in 2025, especially given the numerous Eurozone inflation data released in the previous days.

In the United States, jobless claims (236,000 in the latest data) and new inflation data will help complete the picture.

Friday: US inflation and consumer confidence

The week will close with another batch of data closely watched by traders. In Japan, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is expected (still near 0%), an increasingly important event given the debate over a possible normalization of monetary policy.

In the United States, PCE data (2.8% annualized), together with inflation expectations and Michigan consumer confidence, could significantly influence expectations about the US central bank's next steps.

Possible scenarios

Without wanting to draw definitive conclusions, the week could strengthen two possible interpretations:

• Cautious stabilization scenario: inflation data gradually cooling and central banks oriented towards maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, leaving the door open to cuts in the medium term.

• Scenario of prolonged uncertainty: conflicting macroeconomic signals are forcing monetary authorities to postpone clearer decisions, maintaining high volatility on the markets.