A busy week for the markets: M&A, central banks, stocks in the spotlight and the return of volatility

The financial week closed with a mix of corporate news, macroeconomic data, and monetary policy decisions that kept investors' attention high. From stock market movements to geopolitical tensions, including central banks and slowing inflation in the United States, markets experienced days of strong sector rotation and selective volatility.

In terms of indices, Piazza Affari closed the week with the FTSE MIB at around 44,750 points, up approximately 2.9% on the week, while in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 closed just above 40 points, with limited gains. In the United States, the S&P 500 closed around 6,830 points, the Nasdaq Composite above 23,300 points, while the Dow Jones stood around 48,200 points, reflecting a cautious sentiment following the macroeconomic data.

Piazza Affari: Corporate Transactions and Analyst Opinions

In Milan, the spotlight has turned on several stocks. Juventus has seen a veritable rally after the board of directors rejected Tether's offer, which had offered €2.66 per share, valuing the club at approximately €1.1 billion. Despite Exor's rejection, the stock continued to rally to €2.80, marking a gain of approximately 20% in a week. According to rumors, Tether may be considering a raise, although the Agnelli family's holding company values Juventus at around €2 billion, taking into account assets such as the Allianz Stadium and Continassa, valued between €450 million and €600 million.

Also on the Milan Stock Exchange, Tenaris attracted attention after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage, with a neutral rating and a target price of €18.80, compared to the market price of €17.27 at the end of the week. The U.S. bank recognizes the group's leadership position in the oil & gas sector, with an estimated free cash flow yield of between 8% and 10% and dividends of around 3%, while remaining cautious about its 2026 outlook.

Enel benefited from the announcement of the acquisition of two onshore wind farms in Germany for a total of 51 MW, with an enterprise value of approximately 80 million euros. The transaction is expected to contribute approximately 10 million euros annually to ordinary EBITDA. The stock closed the week at around 8.82 euros, up approximately 1%.

Banks and Defense: Between Target Prices and Geopolitical Scenarios

In the banking sector, UniCredit saw several analysts raise their target prices: KBW and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised the target to €76.88, up from €70 at the start of the week. At the same time, the bank continued its buyback program, purchasing over 13.8 million shares in the second tranche, for a total value of approximately €886 million.

On the defense front, rumors of possible glimmers of peace in Ukraine triggered sharp sector sell-offs. Fincantieri fell as much as 6%, Leonardo over 4%, with widespread declines also among major European players. Subsequently, Leonardo announced new contracts in the United States worth over $120 million and a strengthening of its order book, partly related to the Michelangelo Dome project, with total investments estimated at over €400 million over the long term.

Central Banks and Macroeconomics: US Inflation Slows, ECB Waits

On the macroeconomic front, the most significant data came from the United States, where November inflation surprised on the downside. The consumer price index fell to 2.7% annually (versus an expected 3.1%), while the core component slowed to 2.6% from 3%. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in 2026.

On Wall Street, after a period of volatility in technology stocks, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones futures reacted positively to macroeconomic data. The Dollar Index (DXY) closed around 98 points, while the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated throughout the week in the 1.17–1.18 range.

In Europe, the European Central Bank left rates unchanged: deposit rates at 2%, main refinancing rates at 2.15%, and marginal refinancing rates at 2.40%. Christine Lagarde reiterated that there is no predefined path for the future, confirming a data-dependent approach. The new projections see average inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, with economic growth expected at 1.4% in 2025.

Energy, M&A and global markets

Geopolitical tensions supported raw materials: gold remained above $4,300 an ounce, near historic highs, while WTI oil returned to the $56–57 a barrel range, also supported by tensions related to Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects a further increase in M&A activity in Italy in 2026, after the top ten deals reached a total value of €51 billion in 2025, above the historical average. The most active sectors are expected to remain banking, telecommunications, technology, and pharmaceuticals.

A market still driven by details

Overall, the week showed markets ready to react quickly to any new information: from rejected offers to analyst revisions, from macroeconomic data to central bank statements. In an environment where inflation appears to be slowing but uncertainty remains high, it will once again be the details—rather than the big decisions—that will determine the direction of the markets in the coming weeks.