Markets still held hostage by Hormuz: the rebound slows, fragility remains

After the relief seen midweek, the sessions on Thursday, April 9th and Friday, April 10th, 2026, reminded investors that the problem is far from resolved. Markets attempted to maintain a positive tone, but with less conviction: yesterday on Wall Street, the Dow Jones closed at +0.58% , the S&P 500 at +0.62% , and the Nasdaq at +0.83% . Today, the picture became more uncertain, with the Dow down 0.56% , the S&P 500 at -0.11% , and the Nasdaq at +0.35% . In Europe, the movement was more limited: the STOXX 600 closed today at +0.4% , enough to save the week, but not enough to talk of a return to normality.

The reason is that the true barometer of the markets remains the same: the Strait of Hormuz . In the last few hours, Iran has effectively restricted the passage again, claiming to be reacting to the escalation on the Lebanese front following the Israeli raids. Reuters reports that in the last 24 hours , only one large non-Iranian ship has managed to exit the Gulf through the strait, compared to a normal average of around 140 transits per day . Tehran has also floated the idea of imposing a toll on ships in transit, a proposal immediately rejected by the United States and criticized by international maritime organizations. For the market, the message is crystal clear: even if oil prices are no longer as high as in the worst days, the world's main energy artery remains politically vulnerable.

In this context, Washington remains vigilant and is focusing especially on the talks in Islamabad , which this weekend are expected to represent the first real diplomatic test following the truce announced in recent days. US Vice President J.D. Vance leads the US delegation, while Iran appears at the table, already raising the political price of the negotiations: the release of frozen funds, guarantees for regional security, and, above all, an implicit demand for a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon as well. This is precisely where the greatest contradiction of these hours lies: on the one hand, Israel has declared its desire to begin peace negotiations with Beirut "as soon as possible," on the other, the raids continue, and Lebanon insists that a real truce is needed first. In practice, diplomacy is advancing, but still under heavy bombing.

Markets, in fact, aren't pricing in peace, but a very fragile truce. Oil prices closed lower today, with Brent at $95.20 and WTI at $96.57 , but the most important data is another: on a weekly basis, Brent lost 12.7% and WTI 13.4% . This means the market has removed part of the extreme risk premium, but hasn't completely eliminated it. Reuters emphasizes that production disruptions in the Middle East remain massive: 7.5 million barrels per day were halted in March and up to 9.1 million are expected in April. This means that the stock market rebound isn't the result of a true rebuilding of confidence, but simply because traders aren't seeing an even worse scenario for now.

Meanwhile, Europe has received weak macroeconomic signals just as energy risks remain high. In Germany , industrial production fell 0.3% monthly in February, versus expectations of +0.7% , while in the December-February quarter the decline was 0.4% . In Italy , the figure was only slightly positive but still below expectations: +0.1% monthly versus a consensus of around +0.5% , with -0.4% in the December-February quarter as well. These are important numbers because they reveal a European industry already sluggish even before the energy shock fully affects production costs, transportation, and consumption. In other words: if energy truly becomes a burden again, Berlin and Rome are already starting from a fragile base.

The country that highlights Asia's vulnerability most clearly is Japan . Tokyo announced a new release of strategic reserves equal to 20 days of consumption, after having already released 50 days' worth of supplies onto the market last month. The key fact is that Japan depends on the Middle East for around 95% of its oil, so any slowdown in Hormuz has an almost immediate effect. Reuters reports that the Japanese government aims to shift more than half of its imports to alternative routes as early as May, but meanwhile, import prices in yen have risen by 7.9% and wholesale prices by 2.6% . This is a classic example of an advanced economy entering a crisis not due to an immediate physical shortage of oil, but due to the growing cost of its energy insecurity.

In the United States, however, the most significant signal today came from consumers. In March, the consumer price index rose 0.9% on the month and 3.3% on the year, with gasoline up 21.2% and diesel up 30.8% . The core reading remained more subdued, at 2.6% annually, but household sentiment matters much more for the markets: the preliminary confidence index from the University of Michigan plummeted to 47.6 from 53.3 , a record low in the series. This is where the picture really gets complicated: if energy fuels inflation while consumer sentiment collapses, the Federal Reserve finds itself with less room to cut rates and the stock market loses one of its main supports.

The bottom line is that between April 9th and 10th, the markets didn't change their minds about risk: they just stopped chasing the absolute worst. Hormuz remains half-closed, Iran negotiates but raises its demands, Israel opens negotiations with Lebanon but continues to strike, European industry slows, Japan defends its inventories, and the American consumer is becoming fearful. Therefore, the signal from these two sessions isn't a new bull cycle, but something much more sober: the markets are still breathing, yes, but they remain suspended in a truce that no one considers truly solid.